Contact: Alicia Hughes, NTRA Communications, 859-422-2663, ahughes@ntra.com
Talent never was the issue where Improbable was concerned.
As a juvenile, he was an undefeated Grade 1 winner. When he went to post in the first two legs of the 2019 Triple Crown series, he carried the regard of the betting public who made him the favorite in both classics.
What kept tripping the son of City Zip up each time he had the chance to showcase his progression was his inability to get out of his own way. Once the calendar flipped to 2020 and dose of maturity kicked in, Improbable went from being his own worst enemy to an adversary most of his peers could not overcome.
His similar coloring and precocious ability earned Improbable the nickname of “Little Justify”, a nod to his Triple Crown-winning former stablemate who was named the 2018 Horse of the Year. On Jan. 28, Improbable can further enhance that comparison when he vies with champion Monomoy Girl and Kentucky Derby hero Authentic for 2020 Horse of the Year honors at the 50th Eclipse Awards ceremony presented by Spendthrift Farm.
Improbable, who is also a finalist for champion older dirt male, grew up in a big way during his 4-year-old campaign. Where he had been prone to leaving his race in the starting gate with his antics, the chestnut colt starting behaving like the runner his Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert knew he could be in reeling off three straight Grade 1 victories.
After starting his 2020 season with a runner-up effort in the Oaklawn Mile Stakes on April 11, Improbable notched his first graded win since taking the 2018 Grade 1 Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity when he prevailed by 3 ¼ lengths in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes last June 6. That effort earned him a trip to Saratoga in August to contest prestigious Whitney Stakes where, for a moment, it looked like his old demons had returned when he reared in the starting stall.
Instead of that incident signaling another troubled day at the office, Improbable settled down and was nothing but professional en route to earning a two-length triumph in the 1 1/8-miles test.
“He’s a high-energy horse and it’s not as surprising when you’ve seen it a few times,” said Elliott Walden, president of WinStar Farm, which campaigned Improbable along with China Horse Club and SF Racing, and now stands him on their stallion roster. “It is something that’s cost him a couple races. He typically has one little episode in him and it’s just a question of getting that out of the way and then he settles down.”
As is often the case when sharing a shedrow with multiple top-level runners, Improbable had to take down a friendly rival in order to secure his standing as the leading handicap horse in the country. That moment came on Sept. 26 when the red-colored dynamo unleashed a last-to-first rally in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita Park to defeat stablemate and champion Maximum Security by 4 ½ lengths.
“He always showed a lot of talent as a 3-year old, but, you know, he wasn’t really mentally mature, physically mature,” Baffert said of Improbable. “He’s a beautiful mover and his athleticism is just, you know, the way he covers –goes over the ground and his mechanics. What a difference a year makes. And he’s just really finally put it all together and I’m just happy that they kept him on training an extra year.”
Improbable’s final career start in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic didn’t yield a storybook finish as he ran second to his barnmate Authentic. Though he was denied one last visit to the winner’s circle, Improbable was the top finishing older horse in the race and headed to the breeding shed with a career mark of seven wins from 15 starts and $2,729,520 in earnings.
“Improbable is a really good horse,” Baffert said. “Turning for home (in the Classic), I thought that Improbable was going to kick in there, but Authentic caught another gear and he was gone.”