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Blog - RACING

Nellie Cashman (inside) held off Caroline Thomas in the Lake Placid Stakes at Saratoga this summer but was disqualified and placed third. (Photo courtesy of Adam Coglianese/NYRA)

By Ellis Starr – National Racing Analyst for Equibase

The Grade 2, $175,000 Mrs. Revere Stakes on the turf at Churchill Downs drew a very competitive field of 14 runners with half the field entering the race off of victories. However, the filly with perhaps the best chance to win the race may be one who finished second in her most recent race. Nellie Cashman is that filly, having won the Grade 3 Virginia Oaks in July and entering the Mrs. Revere off a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Valley View Stakes last month at Keeneland. Praia and Zero Game are two of the large group that won their most recent races, both having done so in allowance races. Praia proved her mettle when second to Nellie Cashman in the Virginia Oaks and Zero Game won a race in England this past summer before coming to the states and winning in her North American debut. Effie Trinket won two stakes races in a row versus New York-breds and with four victories from her last five races is another deserving of respect as a contender. Tapicat and EB Rider get potentially disadvantageous outside post positions – 13 and 14, respectively - but fit with these on all counts. Tapicat won the Grade 3 Florida Oaks in February and most recently finished second to talented Discreet Marq in the Pebbles Stakes. E B Rider won the Frances A. Genter Stakes last month on the turf after a slow start and picks up a hot jockey in Corey Lanerie. Dance Again won the Carotene Stakes in Canada on the turf last month and may be a threat once more while both Quality Kitten and Allegheny Angel enter the race off of first-level allowance wins and are skipping a few levels to test their mettle. Emotional Kitten won the Hilltop Stakes in May then came close when second in the Grade 1 American Oaks in July. She attempts to return to top form after two non-threatening efforts. I'm Already Sexy is another who might compete well if returning to the top form shown a few months back, having won the Hatoof and Grade 3 Pucker Up Stakes in back-to-back races. Keening, Frivolous and Remember Then round out the field.

Nellie Cashman has been running consistently well for months, with three wins and three runner-up finishes going back to April. She has put in back-to-back 101  Equibase Speed Figure efforts, first when victorious in the Lake Placid Stakes at Saratoga before being disqualified to third, then when leading late and ending up second by a length in the Valley View Stakes last month. Considering her competitive spirit and the ability shown of late, Nellie Cashman could be tough to beat in this year's Mrs. Revere Stakes.

Zero Game just won in an allowance level race at Laurel but the way she did it was very impressive, as was the fact the effort earned her a 103 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the second-best, last-race figure in the field. In that race, Zero Game was eighth of nine and 12 lengths behind the leader after three-quarters of a mile, then moved fast to be within a half-length with an eighth of a mile to go before drawing off to win by 3 1/2 lengths. Making her second start in the U.S. and second after a short layoff, Zero Game could be even stronger and has a shot to post the mild upset in this race.

Praia should not be disadvantaged by her outside post position as her running style is such she should be far back in the early stages. She rallied from last of 12 to win in October on the turf in an allowance race, an effort that might have boosted her confidence following two poor efforts. Earlier this year, Praia finished second in three straight stakes races including two on the Churchill Downs turf course. With a career-best 102 figure from her most recent race to repeat or improve upon, she appears to be a strong contender.

Effie Trinket also has performed very consistently of late, with four wins and one runner-up effort from her last five races. She won the John Hettinger Stakes in September with a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figure and, although earning a lower figure (94) when winning the Ticonderoga Stakes in her most recent race, she has proven herself very tough in the last eighth of a mile. As such, Effie Trinket rounds out a quartet of contenders in a very tough renewal of the Mrs. Revere Stakes.

The rest of the field (with their best representative Equibase Speed Figure): Allegheny Angel (90), Dance Again (94), E B Ryder (99), Emotional Kitten (102), Frivolous (105), I'm Already Sexy (108), Keening (95), Quality Kitten (91), Remember Then (99) and Tapicat (110). 

My Selections:

Nellie Cashman

Zero Game

Praia

Effie Trinket 

$175,000 Mrs. Revere Stakes

Saturday, Churchill Downs, Race 9, 8:36 p.m. ET

1 1/16 miles (turf), 3-year-old Fillies

PP

Horse

Jockey

Weight

Trainer

1

Emotional Kitten

Victor Espinoza

118

Wesley Ward

2

Quality Kitten

Norberto Arroyo, Jr.

118

Wayne Catalano

3

Zero Game

Sheldon Russell

118

Niall Saville

4

I'm Already Sexy

Florent Geroux

118

Wayne Catalano

5

Effie Trinket

Shaun Bridgmohan

118

Rick Violette, Jr.

6

Keening

Brian Hernandez, Jr.

118

Charlie LoPresti

7

Allegheny Angel

Joe Rocco, Jr.

118

Ken McPeek

8

Nellie Cashman

Forest Boyce

118

Francis Abbott, III

9

Remember Then

Julien Leparoux

118

Jonathan Sheppard

10

Frivolous

Jon Court

118

Victoria Oliver

11

Praia

Alan Garcia

118

Ken McPeek

12

Dance Again

Patrick Husbands

118

Malcolm Pierce

13

Tapicat

Mike Smith

118

Bill Mott

14

E B Ryder

Corey Lanerie

118

Marty Wolfson

 

Image Description

Ellis Starr

National Racing Analyst for Equibase, Fan Education Specialist, Bettor, Magister of Equine Prognostication (Handicapper).

Image Description

Ellis Starr

National Racing Analyst for Equibase, Fan Education Specialist, Bettor, Magister of Equine Prognostication (Handicapper).

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