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Blog - GAMBLING

Photo courtesy Eclipse Sportswire

The 2013 Del Mar meeting opens this week and it’s time for another installment of the Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings (JERs). Readers of this blog in the past will recall the various iterations of the JERs which were released over the past year. Now, we release data of the Southern California jockey colony to invade Del Mar, riding in races six furlongs and one mile on Polytrack, over the last three sunny seasons. While some of riders listed in the ratings might not have mounts this meet at Del Mar, they remain included in the survey provided they had at least 15 mounts at the distances studied.

The degree to which extra ground coverage impacts race results varies to unknowing ends. Horses are different – some do their best running when outside and in the clear, whereas others prefer cover and are willing to travel and advance in tight spaces. As always, we offer the disclaimer that it is completely recognized that traveling wide may be the best decision for rider and horse based on past performance and ever-changing race dynamics.  But the JERs are designed to lend an added perspective to jockey performance over a period of time and a larger sample of rides.

With limited information available on the topic, JERs offers an attempt to better quantify the actual style of a rider over prevalent anecdote that otherwise exists at the racetrack. Before the calculations take place to identify each jockey’s rating, the number of feet covered by each horse, based on post position, at the two distances over the time period in question is collected and averaged. Each horse breaking from a particular starting gate is then compared to the three-year average from that gate, listed below.

DMR - 6F Poly

DMR - 1M Poly

Gate

Avg. Feet Traveled

Gate

Avg. Feet Traveled

1

3994

1

5336

2

3995

2

5339

3

3998

3

5345

4

4001

4

5344

5

4003

5

5349

6

4005

6

5354

7

4006

7

5354

8

4011

8

5359

9

4009

9

5351

10

4012

10

5366

11

4011

11

-

12

4010

12

-


The key figure to understanding the JERs is the “AvgDelta.” To calculate the average delta for a jockey, each mount’s total distance traveled is compared to the respective average (as listed above) from that gate. All of the deltas from each jockey’s mounts are then averaged to derive the “AvgDelta” on the charts below. Total number of mounts, wins, and a $2 ROI are also shown to lend added perspective.

Del Mar - Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings - 6F Polytrack  (2010-2012)

Jockey

AvgDelta

Mounts

Wins

AvgOdds

$2 ROI

Santiago Reyes, C

-7.74

57

8

21.62

$3.60

Krigger, K

-3.69

28

3

12.78

$1.19

Gryder, A

-3.41

15

2

19.64

$3.35

Baze, T

-3.05

32

1

9.19

$0.23

Valenzuela, P

-2.64

100

11

9.08

$1.43

Pedroza, M

-2.01

125

14

14.65

$1.67

Quinonez, A

-1.79

88

9

15.43

$1.90

Bednar, V

-1.05

19

0

35.88

$0.00

Bejerano, R

-0.97

157

32

5.02

$1.51

Valdivia, J

-0.96

19

0

22.42

$0.00

Gomez, G

-0.42

68

15

5.63

$2.04

John, K

-0.18

25

0

27.28

$0.00

Nakatani, C

0.03

52

5

13.39

$1.54

Talamo, J

0.05

126

17

7.58

$1.13

Hernandez, Juan

0.28

33

2

17.04

$1.62

Garcia, Martin

0.44

100

12

8.43

$1.26

Arias, S

0.93

17

1

41.02

$1.12

Maldonado, E

1.33

51

8

13.74

$3.05

Flores, E

1.61

45

4

19.19

$1.25

Flores, D

1.92

98

10

15.77

$1.83

Smith, M

2.31

36

5

10.08

$2.11

Rosario, J

3.02

112

24

4.09

$1.56

Delgadillo, A

3.49

43

6

20.87

$3.37

Espinoza, V

4.28

120

15

13.17

$2.39

Blanc, B

4.79

31

3

19.01

$1.54

Sutherland, C

6.70

29

5

13.9

$2.79

 

Del Mar - Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings - 1M Polytrack (2010-2012)

Jockey

AvgDelta

Mounts

Wins

AvgOdds

$2 ROI

Nakatani, C

-6.78

26

3

9.21

$1.71

Valenzuela, P

-6.06

49

7

9.62

$2.17

Flores, E

-4.94

25

0

18.57

$0.00

Talamo, J

-4.18

51

13

6.61

$2.75

Santiago Reyes, C

-2.76

23

1

13.47

$0.37

Quinonez, A

-2.39

39

4

15.65

$2.83

Pedroza, M

-1.90

49

7

10.75

$2.48

Hernandez, Juan

-1.71

16

0

19.75

$0.00

Flores, D

-1.11

40

5

10.71

$1.30

Blanc, B

-0.28

22

2

15.7

$2.09

Bejerano, R

-0.06

73

15

4.08

$1.40

Gomez, G

0.30

44

9

5.11

$2.28

Espinoza, V

0.47

48

3

7.93

$1.22

Baze, T

0.87

16

1

7.75

$0.61

Garcia, Martin

3.66

57

13

6.73

$3.55

Delgadillo, A

6.20

17

2

17.24

$1.81

Smith, M

6.53

22

2

8.9

$0.49

Rosario, J

7.33

54

14

4.22

$1.69

Sutherland, C

8.22

25

5

12.93

$2.46

Maldonado, E

10.12

25

2

15.61

$1.00


Does saving ground matter?

As always, to varying degrees. The average winner in races at six furlongs at Del Mar over the last three years did cover the shortest trip. In races at one mile, the differences were less obvious – the top seven finishing places averaged ground coverage between 5,344 feet and 5,348 feet – with second-placers covering almost one foot less than winners.

Interpreting the data

Glazed looks could ensue if you stare at the above numbers without some context.

Who are the most efficient jockeys at Del Mar? Corey Nakatani and Christian Santiago Reyes, who has had his tack in Northern California most recently, top the charts for races at one mile and six furlongs, respectively. On average, their mounts saved the most ground in the races studied. The data, in aggregate, attempts to quantify the tendencies of riders, and at least provide some insight to the bettor that might not otherwise have been anything but conjecture. Interestingly, the mounts of Christian Santiago Reyes at six furlongs recorded the highest ROI from any of the 26 jockeys to qualify.

If Mike Smith or Edwin Maldonado was riding a horse you’ve bet from a wide draw going one mile, is it likely that they will make attempts to save ground and negotiate a better trip? Probably not, as both recorded high average deltas at the distance.  Even the high-flying Joel Rosario, with graded/group stakes wins on three continents this year, has a penchant for covering extra ground with mounts at Del Mar, as does returning rider Chantal Sutherland.  Conversely, the trio of Alonso Quinonez, Martin Pedroza, and Patrick Valenzuela were consistent at both distances, registering negative average deltas suggesting ground saving relative to the starting posts for their mounts.

The JERs do not suggest one jockey is better than another overall, just rather highlighting their attentiveness to ground-saving relative to the averages. A 20 percent strike rate for a jockey is superb, but it still means their mounts lose way more often than they win. As such, could this data provide more insight to trips and performances than one would expect? We will refer back to these ratings in future blogs during the Del Mar season and highlight any interesting applications of the data.

Good luck and enjoy another season at the seaside oval!

                                                                                                                  

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

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