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Blog - GAMBLING

Uncaptured (Inside) and Miguel Mena win the 86th Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs. (Photo Courtesy Eclipse Sportswire)

I’ll readily admit that the impressive performances in the Kentucky Jockey Club may have been lost in the shuffle of Thanksgiving, and the preparation of the data for the seasonal launches of Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs. Run as part of Churchill’s “Stars of Tomorrow” card, the race took on a storyline of its own when speed figure disciples were aflutter regarding the low Beyer numbers assigned to winner Uncaptured, and subsequently, the rest of the field. 

Regardless of how fast the field ran (which was definitely slower than a maiden race on the program), second and third place finishers Frac Daddy and Dewey Square appeared to run impressive races when compared to the five-time stakes winner Uncaptured. 

All racing forward, Uncaptured established a two-wide position around the first turn, flanked even wider by Ken McPeek trainee Frac Daddy.  Dewey Square, making his stakes debut, settled in fifth, behind Frac Daddy through the first turn.  As the bulky field of 13 moved around the far turn, Frac Daddy engaged Uncaptured and the two took off in a protracted 2.5-furlong battle.  Dewey Square remained planted wide through the far turn, and found his best stride late, running on to catch third. 

Below is the data from the race, which includes the feet traveled per horse, delta (difference in feet traveled when compared to the winner), the actual margin, Trakus-Adjusted Margin (explanation below), and final fractions recorded.

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) - Nov 24, 2012 - 1 1/16 Miles - Churchill Downs

Finish

Horse

Feet Traveled

Delta

Actual Margin

TA Margin

Final 1/4

Final 1/8

1st

Uncaptured

5659

-

(neck)

-

24.96

12.95

2nd

Frac Daddy

5686

27

0.2

-2.98

25.07

13.01

3rd

Dewey Square

5700

41

1.25

-3.57

24.76

12.64

4th

Tesseron

5667

8

2.25

1.31

25.10

12.84

5th

Fear the Kitten

5677

18

4.75

2.63

24.78

12.61

6th

Java's War

5701

42

5.25

0.31

25.25

13.04

7th

Positively

5714

55

6

-0.47

25.19

12.90

8th

Track Rocker

5647

-12

8

9.41

25.97

13.33

9th

Joha

5674

15

8

6.24

25.77

13.18

10th

Silver Tongued

5676

17

8.25

6.25

24.99

12.78

11th

Indiano Jones

5690

31

12.75

9.10

26.03

13.36

12th

Lew and Mike

5635

-24

14.25

17.07

26.55

13.50

13th

Will Take Charge

5646

-13

25.5

27.03

27.50

14.34

*TA Margin = Trakus Adjusted Margin (Actual margin - delta converted to lengths)


As noted by the negative numbers in the “TA Margin” column, both Frac Daddy and Dewey Square traveled more ground than their margin of defeat indicated, with Dewey Square going to equivalent of 4.82 lengths more than Uncaptured.  Taking his actual margin of defeat (1.25 lengths) and subtracting the delta (the extra number of feet he traveled compared to winner, converted to lengths), provides the Trakus-Adjusted Margin of -3.57 lengths. 

It is worth noting that fifth place finisher Fear The Kitten recorded the fastest two and one-furlong splits in the race, while seventh placer Positively suffered from the wide trip when beaten six lengths, and also covered enough extra ground to account for his margin of defeat.

Below are the average speeds recorded for each 1/16th segment in the race.  Trakus is constantly recording data as the race progresses, and these figures are the average speeds over each segment cumulatively.

Finish

Horse

Avg MPH

1st

Uncaptured

36.9

2nd

Frac Daddy

37.0

3rd

Dewey Square

37.1

4th

Tesseron

36.8

5th

Fear the Kitten

36.7

6th

Java's War

36.8

7th

Positively

36.9

8th

Track Rocker

36.3

9th

Joha

36.5

10th

Silver Tongued

36.5

11th

Indiano Jones

36.3

12th

Lew and Mike

35.9

13th

Will Take Charge

35.3

 

Dewey Square ran the fastest race based on pure speed, covering extra ground, while Frac Daddy checked in next fastest.  Uncaptured and Positively tied for the third fastest.  Watching the race, it is difficult to actually see how the winner and the seventh placer average the same speed throughout the race.  Accounting for the extra ground Positively covered, and the speed and energy he needed to maintain that his position, the data becomes more logical.  Separations of one-tenth of a mile-per-hour might seem insignificant, but so too can the slimmest of margins when it could be the difference between winning and losing, third or fourth, or any other racing variable as the finite line that ends the race comes into play.

It might be early, and the speed figures may have yielded slow numbers, but based on the data above, and the fact the race was run at Churchill Downs, a friend grabbed a slice of the 65-1 Kentucky Derby future odds from the Wynn in Las Vegas.  It doesn’t take a huge outlay to cash big on one of these futures.  The Derby trail is a long, winding, treacherous road.  Following the data, maybe he’ll have to make a return trip to cash come May.

Jockey Miguel Mena celebrates after edging out Frac Daddy for the victory

Uncaptured Celebrate

Photo Courtesy Eclipse Sportwire

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

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