America's Best Racing. The Jockey Club.

The 2012-2013 season at Tampa Bay Downs opened with a single card last Saturday, and the action only heats up from there, both literally and figuratively. In this week’s blog, we review data from two distances on the main track from last season at Tampa. When offering the data from a Trakus-equipped facility, we strategically select the distances to study, focusing on distances that often offer the best chance for ground loss to identify the most meaning out of the data. At Tampa, races on the turf course start in both a front-stretch chute and the straightaway, which certainly does change the complexion of early positioning from riders. As such, two dirt distances were chosen for the study – six furlongs and one mile and 40 yards.

Below are the average ground traveled numbers sorted by post position and finishing position. 

Peter Mallett, longtime Tampa Bay Downs press box denizen, author of the annual Tampa Bay Downs Betting Guide, handicapper and all-around good-guy, hypothesized at the beginning of last year’s meet, the first with Trakus, that the preference of “wider-being-better” might be exhibited in the Trakus numbers. Like any surface, it has the ability to change with prevailing weather and course conditions, and it does. However, a defined regular trend really did not emerge from the data. Overall, the base conclusion from the data is that the main track surface plays relatively fair across all lanes. Whereas we’ve seen some substantial differences with past studies, the data that emerged last season at Tampa proved remarkably even. 

The average winner at both studied distances did not cover the shortest trip, but was within one foot of that figure, while the average runner finishing in the top six positions at each distance was within no more than a about a half-length of extra coverage from any of the other positions (two feet at six furlongs – 4010 to 4012 – which equates to roughly one-quarter of a length, and five feet at the extended mile trip – 5481 to 5486 – just more than a half-length). Tenth-place finishers statistically covered the shortest trip in those Tampa two-turn dirt races, but the sample size of those was particularly limited, thus dimming the impact to the overall data.

Below, you will find the Tampa Bay Downs Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings for the two distances studied. A minimum of 30 mounts combined between the two distances was required for inclusion.

Having 30 jockeys qualify for the JERs is largest net we’ve spread in the short history of the JERs. 

As we did last week, looking at average deltas at Gulfstream based solely on jockeys’ mounts when they were planted wide in the gate for a two-turn turf race, we do the same for Tampa. This time, we surveyed the ground traveled statistics for the mounts that were installed in gates seven and higher in one-mile and 40-yard races. While the overall JER figures are helpful in identifying overall jockey performance, the wide draw statistics might even be more meaningful in the long term. When stuck wide, how a jockey reacts and attempts to manage a better trip seems potentially more valuable. Field sizes are limited to ten horses in these races, hence the gate selection. Jockeys had to have at least five mounts to qualify.

Purple Egg Impresses

Tampa Bay Downs got their season off to a flying start, featuring a full slate of two-year-old races last Saturday. There was plenty to be excited about after the performance of Purple Egg in the Inaugural Stakes. A gelding by Lion Heart, Purple Egg made it three consecutive wins to start his career for trainer Jane Cibelli. 

Rarely, if ever, have we seen the type of fast closing fractions put in from Purple Egg in a 2-year-old race at six furlongs.  Heavy 1-2 favorite Brave Dave led through relatively moderate opening fractions, but it left plenty in the tank for Purple Egg to close. Coming from off the pace under Roberto Alvarado Jr., Purple Egg rattled home with a final quarter mile in 23.75 seconds, and a final eighth in 11.97 seconds. Comparatively, Brave Dave recorded a final quarter in 24.36 seconds and a final eighth in 12.38 seconds.

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