America's Best Racing. The Jockey Club.

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

It is a good sign that winter is not far off when Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs enter the conversation. Trakus was installed last season at the two Florida tracks, which begin their long campaigns on Saturday. This blog will introduce data compiled over the course of the previous season and continue to post interesting race statistics as the season progresses. This week, we start with Gulfstream. 

Below are the average ground-traveled statistics sorted by two notable variables – average ground traveled sorted by post position and finishing position. The difference between the shortest trip per position and each subsequent post is identified by “delta” and converted to lengths in the next column. As usual, the data when sorted by post position is the foundational element in compiling the Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings for the two distances, which appear in this blog as well.

As the above data indicates, the average winner did travel the shortest trip at both distances last season at Gulfstream, albeit tied with the average second-place finisher in six-furlong races. In our ongoing study of ground coverage, only Woodbine’s races going 1 1/16 miles on the synthetic Polytrack surface have bucked this trend (winners actually covered the most ground, on average). Inside post draws remain a great boost to saving ground, with the rail position affording roughly 2.5 lengths of less ground coverage compared with outside draws over six furlongs, and nearly 4.5 lengths at 1 1/16 miles on turf. Inverting the logic, horses drawn in gate 12 for turf races at Gulfstream at that distance suffer about a 4.5-length handicap purely based on their draw, and any horse drawn from gate eight or wider would be expected to cover at least 2.8 lengths, or more, than horses drawn on the rail.   

Over the course of all 1 1/16 miles turf races at the 2011-2012 meet, 274 out of 1248 starters (21%) broke from gates nine or higher, with 19 races won by horses breaking from those outer gates, accounting for 15-percent of all wins at the distance. Only two horses out of 41 starters (4%) were victorious when breaking from gate 12 in those races, and both winners saved significant ground relative to their post draws. Javier Castellano led Absolute Power to a gate 12 win on Feb. 17, covering just 5,643 feet in the process, 57 feet less than the average for horses breaking from the same stall. Jose Lezcano guided Miss Spritely to a win one day later, covering 47 feet less than average. Castellano’s ride was a product of going straight to the front and settling while Lezcano’s came from just off the pace after securing a comfortable early ground-saving position.

LEZCANO AFTER A WIN IN 2011 AT GULFSTREAM

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Below are the Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings from the two distances studied last season at Gulfstream. Inclusion in the study required at least 30 mounts, combined, at six furlongs on dirt, 1 1/16 miles on turf, and at least 10 mounts at each mounts at both distances. “Avg delta” is the average difference in the number of feet each jockey’s mounts covered relative to the average ground horses are expected to cover from their post, as recorded by Trakus. A negative “Avg delta” denotes ground saving, in feet, relative to the average from each post position. A positive “Avg delta” denotes covering more ground than average. The placement of the temporary rail on the sweeping Gulfstream turf course leads to various gate positions and distances from the first turn. We used races at 1 1/16 miles instead of the one mile races to mitigate some of the impact of varying rail positions.

Highlights from the Gulfstream Trakus JERs:

• While it is clear that the wins from Javier Castellano and Jose Lezcano show them towering over their competition, it is particularly impressive to note the positive ROI from the sample sizes involved. Remember, the $2 ROI is the amount you would get back on a $2 win wager on every mount, thus, any amount over $2 represents a profit.  Of Lezcano’s 15 winners, none came at odds higher than 5-1 and the average delta of the winners was -10.24.  Castellano’s highest-priced winner was 11-1, and the average delta of his winning mounts was -11.11.

• Joe Rocco Jr. continues to impress, measuring the highest ROI from qualifying riders at six furlongs. While only 3-for-44 in the grass races studied, his mounts were sent postward at odds of almost 19-1. 

• 2011 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1)-winning jockey Juan Leyva was nearly even on his $2 ROI in races at six furlongs, and a closer look at his performances indicate the key to success. In Leyva’s winning mounts at the distance, his average delta was -6.30, while for all other mounts it was only -3.35.  Of the 50 mounts studied, two of the three with the lowest deltas in his ledger were winning rides. 

• It should be no surprise to see Luis Contreras near the bottom of a JER. While a two-time leading rider at Woodbine, he has a penchant for riding wide there, a trait that is often viewed as beneficial on the Polytrack. As mentioned earlier, the average winner last season at Woodbine covered more ground than any other finishing position. The same, however, cannot be said for the Gulfstream turf. 

The JERs would suggest which jockeys, on average, do more to save ground regardless of their post position. So, breaking down the JERs to a greater degree, below are the average deltas for jockeys’ mounts drawn in posts nine and higher at 1 1/16-mile turf races over the last meet.  Only jockeys with more than five mounts in these outer posts qualified for sampling, which is an admittedly miniscule sample. Still, as ground loss is more likely when marooned from a wide draw, the top riders on this list might show a penchant for saving as much as possible.

We look forward to another season in sunny south Florida and will bring the meaningful data to the fore, as usual, here in the blog. Next week, we’ll offer a review of the JERs from Tampa Bay Downs.