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Blog - GAMBLING

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

It is a good sign that winter is not far off when Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs enter the conversation. Trakus was installed last season at the two Florida tracks, which begin their long campaigns on Saturday. This blog will introduce data compiled over the course of the previous season and continue to post interesting race statistics as the season progresses. This week, we start with Gulfstream. 

Below are the average ground-traveled statistics sorted by two notable variables – average ground traveled sorted by post position and finishing position. The difference between the shortest trip per position and each subsequent post is identified by “delta” and converted to lengths in the next column. As usual, the data when sorted by post position is the foundational element in compiling the Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings for the two distances, which appear in this blog as well.

Average Ground Traveled by Post Position

6 Furlongs (Dirt)

1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Post

Avg Feet

Delta

Lengths

Post

Avg Feet

Delta

Lengths

1

3998

-

-

1

5664

-

-

2

4003

5

0.59

2

5668

4

0.47

3

4003

5

0.59

3

5670

6

0.71

4

4006

8

0.94

4

5676

12

1.41

5

4008

10

1.18

5

5678

14

1.65

6

4012

14

1.65

6

5682

18

2.12

7

4015

17

2.00

7

5682

18

2.12

8

4014

16

1.88

8

5692

28

3.29

9

4019

21

2.47

9

5688

24

2.82

10

4020

22

2.59

10

5694

30

3.53

11

4022

24

2.82

11

5694

30

3.53

12

4020

22

2.59

12

5700

36

4.24

Average Ground Traveled by Finish Position

6 Furlongs (Dirt)

1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

Finish

Avg Feet Traveled

Finish

Avg Feet Traveled

1st

4006

1st

5674

2nd

4006

2nd

5676

3rd

4008

3rd

5676

4th

4007

4th

5676

5th

4009

5th

5680

6th

4009

6th

5682

7th

4012

7th

5681

8th

4007

8th

5680

9th

4014

9th

5687

10th

4015

10th

5685

11th

4014

11th

5688

12th

4019

12th

5687

**Data recorded by Trakus during 2011-2012 Gulfstream Park meet


As the above data indicates, the average winner did travel the shortest trip at both distances last season at Gulfstream, albeit tied with the average second-place finisher in six-furlong races. In our ongoing study of ground coverage, only Woodbine’s races going 1 1/16 miles on the synthetic Polytrack surface have bucked this trend (winners actually covered the most ground, on average). Inside post draws remain a great boost to saving ground, with the rail position affording roughly 2.5 lengths of less ground coverage compared with outside draws over six furlongs, and nearly 4.5 lengths at 1 1/16 miles on turf. Inverting the logic, horses drawn in gate 12 for turf races at Gulfstream at that distance suffer about a 4.5-length handicap purely based on their draw, and any horse drawn from gate eight or wider would be expected to cover at least 2.8 lengths, or more, than horses drawn on the rail.   

Over the course of all 1 1/16 miles turf races at the 2011-2012 meet, 274 out of 1248 starters (21%) broke from gates nine or higher, with 19 races won by horses breaking from those outer gates, accounting for 15-percent of all wins at the distance. Only two horses out of 41 starters (4%) were victorious when breaking from gate 12 in those races, and both winners saved significant ground relative to their post draws. Javier Castellano led Absolute Power to a gate 12 win on Feb. 17, covering just 5,643 feet in the process, 57 feet less than the average for horses breaking from the same stall. Jose Lezcano guided Miss Spritely to a win one day later, covering 47 feet less than average. Castellano’s ride was a product of going straight to the front and settling while Lezcano’s came from just off the pace after securing a comfortable early ground-saving position.

LEZCANO AFTER A WIN IN 2011 AT GULFSTREAM

Trakus Inside

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire

Below are the Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings from the two distances studied last season at Gulfstream. Inclusion in the study required at least 30 mounts, combined, at six furlongs on dirt, 1 1/16 miles on turf, and at least 10 mounts at each mounts at both distances. “Avg delta” is the average difference in the number of feet each jockey’s mounts covered relative to the average ground horses are expected to cover from their post, as recorded by Trakus. A negative “Avg delta” denotes ground saving, in feet, relative to the average from each post position. A positive “Avg delta” denotes covering more ground than average. The placement of the temporary rail on the sweeping Gulfstream turf course leads to various gate positions and distances from the first turn. We used races at 1 1/16 miles instead of the one mile races to mitigate some of the impact of varying rail positions.

2011-2012 Gulfstream - Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings

6 Furlongs (Dirt)

JER Rank

Jockey

Avg Delta

 

Mounts

Wins

Win %

AvgWinOdds

$2 ROI

#1

Lezcano, J

-6.32

 

34

6

17.6%

8.81

$1.38

#2

Prado, E

-5.41

 

24

3

12.5%

7.64

$0.93

#3

Leyva, J

-3.71

 

50

6

12.0%

19.50

$1.99

#4

Lopez, P

-3.19

 

64

13

20.3%

8.15

$2.39

#5

Leparoux, J

-2.64

 

27

4

14.8%

5.78

$2.03

#6

Alvarez, J

-1.97

 

22

1

4.5%

31.86

$0.35

#7

Castellano, J

-1.82

 

47

8

17.0%

6.11

$0.96

#8

Castanon, J

-1.55

 

22

3

13.6%

7.20

$1.17

#9

Maragh, R

-1.53

 

51

10

19.6%

7.81

$1.93

#10

Cruz, M

-1.41

 

38

3

7.9%

17.27

$0.52

#11

Santana, J

-0.76

 

28

2

7.1%

25.53

$1.02

#12

Rocco Jr, J

-0.48

 

54

10

18.5%

11.49

$2.83

#13

Velazquez, J

-0.03

 

30

10

33.3%

4.59

$2.08

#14

Trujillo, E

0.46

 

63

10

15.9%

7.88

$1.77

#15

Contreras, L

0.69

 

14

2

14.3%

12.20

$2.61

#16

Bravo, J

0.89

 

27

7

25.9%

7.63

$1.96

#17

Jara, F

0.90

 

43

3

7.0%

25.34

$1.22

#18

Jurado, L

0.94

 

27

4

14.8%

26.04

$2.73

#19

Solis, A

1.05

 

11

1

9.1%

40.17

$0.80

#20

Garcia, Jose A.

1.43

 

25

0

0.0%

24.98

$0.00

#21

Panici, L

1.53

 

20

1

5.0%

48.40

$0.32

#22

Sanchez, J

1.84

 

25

3

12.0%

18.31

$1.22

#23

Desormeaux, K

2.31

 

11

2

18.2%

5.72

$1.00

#24

Centeno, D

2.46

 

28

1

3.6%

12.40

$0.41

#25

Saez, L

2.57

 

63

7

11.1%

13.58

$1.46

#26

Bocachica, O

2.85

 

35

2

5.7%

19.37

$0.84

#27

Nunez, E

3.93

 

27

4

14.8%

21.16

$1.79

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2011-2012 Gulfstream - Trakus Jockey Efficiency Ratings          

1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

JER Rank

Jockey

Avg Delta

 

Mounts

Wins

Win %

AvgWinOdds

$2 ROI

#1

Rocco Jr, J

-7.00

 

44

3

6.8%

18.81

$0.55

#2

Lopez, P

-6.19

 

54

4

7.4%

11.96

$1.13

#3

Leparoux, J

-6.10

 

58

6

10.3%

5.97

$0.57

#4

Lezcano, J

-5.48

 

50

15

30.0%

5.07

$2.36

#5

Prado, E

-5.05

 

54

8

14.8%

9.68

$1.89

#6

Panici, L

-4.64

 

14

1

7.1%

68.09

$10.99

#7

Maragh, R

-4.61

 

61

6

9.8%

12.21

$1.78

#8

Cruz, M

-4.44

 

50

3

6.0%

17.28

$1.00

#9

Castellano, J

-3.00

 

72

20

27.8%

5.46

$2.68

#10

Centeno, D

-2.33

 

33

2

6.1%

39.89

$1.77

#11

Saez, L

-2.08

 

46

4

8.7%

25.00

$1.17

#12

Garcia, Jose A.

-2.07

 

15

0

0.0%

45.78

$0.00

#13

Sanchez, J

-1.97

 

27

0

0.0%

32.95

$0.00

#14

Bocachica, O

-1.87

 

19

1

5.3%

28.65

$0.27

#15

Santana, J

-0.91

 

29

4

13.8%

31.26

$1.58

#16

Alvarez, J

0.56

 

11

1

9.1%

73.24

$4.69

#17

Desormeaux, K

0.64

 

19

2

10.5%

10.14

$0.56

#18

Leyva, J

1.38

 

49

1

2.0%

26.57

$0.16

#19

Solis, A

1.83

 

31

2

6.5%

18.02

$1.21

#20

Trujillo, E

1.89

 

46

1

2.2%

15.20

$0.37

#21

Jurado, L

2.40

 

19

2

10.5%

35.39

$1.04

#22

Velazquez, J

3.30

 

62

7

11.3%

5.94

$0.64

#23

Castanon, J

4.66

 

38

2

5.3%

23.84

$0.65

#24

Bravo, J

4.90

 

55

6

10.9%

8.40

$1.30

#25

Nunez, E

6.58

 

23

2

8.7%

59.05

$5.07

#26

Jara, F

7.25

 

31

5

16.1%

23.90

$3.05

#27

Contreras, L

11.41

 

35

3

8.6%

21.03

$1.12


Highlights from the Gulfstream Trakus JERs:

  • While it is clear that the wins from Javier Castellano and Jose Lezcano show them towering over their competition, it is particularly impressive to note the positive ROI from the sample sizes involved. Remember, the $2 ROI is the amount you would get back on a $2 win wager on every mount, thus, any amount over $2 represents a profit.  Of Lezcano’s 15 winners, none came at odds higher than 5-1 and the average delta of the winners was -10.24.  Castellano’s highest-priced winner was 11-1, and the average delta of his winning mounts was -11.11.

 

  • Joe Rocco Jr. continues to impress, measuring the highest ROI from qualifying riders at six furlongs. While only 3-for-44 in the grass races studied, his mounts were sent postward at odds of almost 19-1. 

 

  • 2011 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1)-winning jockey Juan Leyva was nearly even on his $2 ROI in races at six furlongs, and a closer look at his performances indicate the key to success. In Leyva’s winning mounts at the distance, his average delta was -6.30, while for all other mounts it was only -3.35.  Of the 50 mounts studied, two of the three with the lowest deltas in his ledger were winning rides. 

 

  • It should be no surprise to see Luis Contreras near the bottom of a JER. While a two-time leading rider at Woodbine, he has a penchant for riding wide there, a trait that is often viewed as beneficial on the Polytrack. As mentioned earlier, the average winner last season at Woodbine covered more ground than any other finishing position. The same, however, cannot be said for the Gulfstream turf. 

The JERs would suggest which jockeys, on average, do more to save ground regardless of their post position. So, breaking down the JERs to a greater degree, below are the average deltas for jockeys’ mounts drawn in posts nine and higher at 1 1/16-mile turf races over the last meet.  Only jockeys with more than five mounts in these outer posts qualified for sampling, which is an admittedly miniscule sample. Still, as ground loss is more likely when marooned from a wide draw, the top riders on this list might show a penchant for saving as much as possible.

Jockey

Avg Delta, Post 9+

Santana, J

-12.21

Lezcano, J

-10.44

Cruz, M

-10.42

Leparoux, J

-8.47

Leyva, J

-6.63

Rocco Jr, J

-4.92

Maragh, R

-2.73

Lopez, P

-2.57

Nunez, E

-1.83

Prado, E

-0.91

Castellano, J

-0.56

Bocachica, O

0.39

Jurado, L

0.43

Trujillo, E

0.93

Velazquez, J

1.06

Rose, J

1.33

Centeno, D

1.48

Saez, L

2.57

Solis, A

3.62

Sanchez, J

3.74

Jara, F

5.95

Bravo, J

7.28

Contreras, L

13.51

Castanon, J

13.79


We look forward to another season in sunny south Florida and will bring the meaningful data to the fore, as usual, here in the blog. Next week, we’ll offer a review of the JERs from Tampa Bay Downs.

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

Image Description

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999.  Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

 

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