This year a key question is how much stock to put in last year’s results when handicapping this year’s horses. I think it would be silly not to pay at least some mind to 2008, but I also don’t want that thinking to steer me straight to every turf-loving European import.

That said, let’s dig into the races:

Breeders’ Cup Marathon

I’ve read more than one handicapper state in print that Mastery is something of a cinch in here. I don’t understand that thinking. If this race were on grass, I might agree, but it can be argued that the worst race of his career was his lone attempt on synthetic -- the Kentucky Derby Challenge when he was fourth behind the forgettable Mafaaz. I do think the increase in distance of this race to 1 ¾ miles plays further into the hands of the Europeans, though. But rather than take short odds on Mastery, I’ll take somewhat longer odds on FATHER TIME, who was competitive with Mastery in Group events on grass over there, but won his lone synthetic start in his career debut despite racing greenly. Like Father Time, MAN OF IRON gets a weight break in here as a 3-year-old and he’s a half brother to Jazil and Rags to Riches, so the distance shouldn’t be a problem. He’s won two of his last three at Dundalk over synthetics and that track sent us Muhannak last year. The drawbacks are the quick turnaround, and perhaps Aidan O’Brien’s dreadful-of-late 2-for-49 record with European imports. I will give a nod for third to CLOUDY’S KNIGHT. He’s coming back in only 15 days with a flight in the interim. But as Dave Litfin wisely pointed out regarding Forever Together last year, when was the last time a Jonathan Sheppard trainee showed up in a longish stakes race and failed to get the distance? This venerable 9-year old will be passing horses late. 

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

You can get poor fast betting on turf sprint winners making their first starts around two turns. Nevertheless, I like ROSE CATHERINE in here. After backing up to distant sixth and fifth place finishes in a couple of dirt maiden specials in NY, Todd Pletcher moved her to the grass and what did she go off in a field of 10? 10-1? 20-1? Nope—8-5. And she won by nearly nine lengths while coming home the last eighth in :11 1/5. You rarely see wins by that much daylight on the grass at Belmont. It’s interesting to note that Interactif (entered in the Juvenile Turf) also showed a couple of speed crazy efforts on dirt before cranking out two boffo performances for Pletcher around two turns in turf stakes competition. It’s times like these when I tell myself, “If I’m right, I win. If I’m wrong and he runs 10^th, its no different moneywise, than if he runs a close second.” JUNIA TEPZIA is a Team Valor purchase who will be with Christophe Clement after this race. She is two-for-two in Italy, and in her last win in the Premio Coolmore, she took the lead for the first furlong, let someone else have it for a while, then took the lead back in the last furlong. Horses rarely pull this off and I tend to love those who can. She will be hampered, though, from post 11.  I feel like the Americans in here other than Rose Catherine are pretty comparable in ability, but I’ll go with SMART SEATTLE for third. I think she might have been running against the grain of the racecourse when second behind Tapitsfly in the P.G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga in her lone two-turn grass attempt. At a short price, I will let Lillie Langtry beat me. She beat Elusive Galaxy by two lengths at Leopardstown, and Elusive Galaxy disappointed when fourth at even money last time out in the Natalma at Woodbine. 

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

1. Bickersons
2. Blind Luck
3. Biofuel 

I really can’t make up my mind between BICKERSONS and BLIND LUCK in here. But Bickersons should be a significantly higher price, so I’ll put her on top. Blind Luck did everything right last time in the Oak Leaf, and she has an advantage being locally based. But she did have something of a perfect, inside-out trip last time. Bickersons, on the other hand, had bad luck in that -- despite being a speed horse -- she found herself three-wide all the way around the racetrack last time. (This is a favorite betting angle of mine, but one that pops up very rarely because two-turn speed horses usually manage to save ground at some point.) If she can get even a slightly more ground saving trip this time, she can get a big piece of this and maybe even turn the tables on Blind Luck. And she has stayed at Santa Anita since the Oak Leaf, which is a plus. BIOFUEL has talent, but there may be a little less to her than meets the eye. She closed powerfully to win the Mazarine, but five of the eight jockeys in that race decided to engage each other in a line across the track entering the far turn. That set things up beautifully for a late closer like Biofuel.

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

1. Rutherienne
2. Forever Together
3. Pure Clan

I’m not crazy about anyone in this race. Magical Fantasy has been the best of a very moderate distaff turf lot in California -- which includes Visit. Forever Together has been solid this year, but not quite as sharp as last year. Midday may go off the favorite based on her win in the Group I Nassau Stakes at this distance, but behind her in second and third were Rainbow View and Moneycantbuymelove, who were both somewhat disappointing in their initial North American starts (both at 1 1/4 miles) last month. RUTHERIENNE has never raced at 1 ¼ miles, but Christophe Clement is a great turf mentor, and if she can get the distance, she is as good or better than anyone in here. With better racing luck and weather luck, she’d probably be coming into this event on a four-race winning streak. She’s as game as they come, prefers firm turf, and seems to have closed any gap that might have existed between her and FOREVER TOGETHER last year. The latter won this race last year, and obviously must be respected. PURE CLAN has improved significantly since last year when she ran last in this event. Her only loss in her last three starts came in the Beverly D. when her late closing style was not flattered by that day’s race course.

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

1. Informed Decision
2. Ventura
3. Evita Argentina

INFORMED DECISION is a perfect six-for-six over synthetics and took a narrow decision over defending F&M Sprint champ VENTURA in April at Keeneland. The two are very hard to separate, but the pace in this year’s renewal of the F&M Sprint figures to be much softer than it was last year, which should favor Informed Decision slightly and hamper Ventura somewhat. My betting strategy in this race, though, is not to try to figure out who will win, but to use both of the top choices in the first two slots of a trifecta over EVITA ARGENTINA, who is like a poor woman’s Ventura. Give her seven furlongs over a California racetrack, and she’ll fire just about every time.  

Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic

1. Life is Sweet
2. Music Note
3. Careless Jewel

LIFE IS SWEET is the Friday horse I’m most excited to bet on. She has faced Zenyatta (who would have been odds –on in here) in three of her last four races and the other try was against males in the Hollywood Gold Cup. Not only did she face stablemate Zenyatta in those three races, she wound up playing cat and mouse with her in all three, running the early stages of those races either just ahead of her or just behind her. There are no such issues for her this time around and she moves to a distance at which she is a perfect two-for two, including the best performance of her career—a daylight win in the Grade I Santa Margarita Handicap at Santa Anita last March. She is three-for-four lifetime at Santa Anita, and among her foes, only Lethal Heat has even one win over the surface. All systems go. MUSIC NOTE was third in this race last year, but she seems like a much improved horse this year. She will get first run on Careless Jewel, and must be careful not to engage that one too early. CARELESS JEWEL is the likely favorite, having reeled off five straight wins by margins ranging from 3 ½-11 lengths. She will be in front as far as she goes, but I worry about her ability to stay over the Pro-Ride. She is a tempermental sort who pitched a fit prior to the Cotillion, and then she looked an awful lot like a “run-off” horse during the running of that Philadelphia Park race. At short odds, against better and older competition, and over a track surface that may not flatter her run-and-gun style, I’ll let her beat me. 

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

1. Zip Quik
2. Interactif
3. King Ledley

On to Saturday! At the risk of offending my friends at Breeders’ Cup, I don’t recommend betting a lot of money on this race. There is one very good looking American based horse, five accomplished European runners who are hard for me to separate, and another sneaky American who I think will be ignored at the window. In short, the race gives me a headache every time I look at it. When in doubt like this, I like to go for the gusto, and therefore I will play longshot ZIP QUIK, who hasn’t even competed over the grass yet. However, he has raced somewhat competitively against the likes of Lookin at Lucky and D’Funnybone on dirt, and he is bred both sides for grass with City Zip on top and a Danzig-line mare underneath. He’s trained by Patrick Biancone, who won the inaugural BC JT in 2007 with Nownownow. And his connections saw fit to ante up a 9% supplement to make him eligible for this race. If you didn’t see INTERACTIF’s win in the Bourbon, you should go elsewhere on this site and punch up the video. He was monstrous that day -- way better than the one-length win margin might indicate. He clearly could be any kind, but he drew a poor post position and I think he will go off the favorite because there are so many ways to go among the Euros. Of that bunch, KING LEDLEY is less sexy looking than some of his fellow globetrotters, but he exits a race similar to what Donativum used as his springboard to victory in the BC JT last year.

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

1. Strike the Deal
2. Gotta Have Her
3. California Flag

Yikes -- another skullbuster. STRIKE THE DEAL has had his ups and downs during his 23-race career. But right now che is in the process of an up. Two races ago, two changes occurred. Kieren Fallon became his rider, and a pace-pressing style was abandoned for a deep closing one. Strike the Deal won both those races with strong late runs, and Europeans often take well to the Santa Anita down-the-hill course. Total Gallery, the horse he beat last time out in a seemingly ho-hum Group III event, came back to win Longchamp’s Group I Prix de l’Abbaye, one of Europe’s most prestigious sprint races. And Strike the Deal’s owner and trainer had a highly accomplished sprinter in Fleeting Spirit pre-entered for this. Fleeting Spirit ran a perfectly good fourth in this race last year. But they decided to send Fleeting Spirit to the dirt sprint and go with Strike the Deal here. He is very interesting at a price. GOTTA HAVE HER is a flawless four-for-four over this tricky course. She’s meeting better, but she is fast enough to win this. A quick turnaround is the only drawback. CALIFORNIA FLAG’s only loss in his last six starts was a 10^th-place finish in this race last year. He was challenged early by the ultra-fast-early Mr. Nightlinger in that affair, and there are no such speedballs to go with him this year. He is probably 2-5 to have the lead with an eighth of a mile to go, and he is not going to be easy to run down.

Breeders’ Cup Sprint

1. Capt. Candyman Can
2. Zensational
3. Fatal Bullet 

Last time out at Keeneland, CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN closed from way back and nearly caught last year’s BC Sprint runner up Fatal Bullet on a day when early speed was winning everything. In fact, Fatal Bullet and the close third place finisher EZ Dreamer dueled each other all the way around the track. Capt. Candyman Can was giving weight to Fatal Bullet that day, and Saturday, he’ll be getting it. In his last three races he’s been duking it out with the likes of Quality Road, Vineyard Haven, Munnings and, of course, Fatal Bullet. ZENSATIONAL, on the other hand, has beaten Noble Court, Nikkisgoldensteed, Talkinto Mom Roo, Global Hunter and Rush With Thunder in his last three. He also drew the dreaded rail post for this, with the two other speeds located right next door to him. He must be respected off his five sprint wins this year, but he will have his work cut out for him here, even with the outstanding Bob Baffert as his trainer. FATAL BULLET ran his eyeballs out in this race last year and has to be given a chance based on that performance alone. 

I found this race extremely difficult. I wasn’t crazy about Lookin at Lucky, and that was before he drew post 13. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity was the best prep race leading up to this. NOBLE’S PROMISE and AIKENITE finished first and second in that one, and I think Noble’s Promise’s edge in the tactical speed department will serve him well again Saturday in a race that has surprisingly little early lick. Last year, the Juvenile was the one race on the Saturday card in which early speed proved supreme. It may also be interesting to note that Make Music For Me and Hurricane Ike each finished far behind in the Breeders’ Futurity and both were quite competitive in California against Lookin at Lucky. ASPIRE has never raced over synthetics, however he beat Aikenite two races back in the Hopeful, and he has yet to have a clean trip in any of his three career starts. He is a guy with some upside potential.

Breeders’ Cup Mile

1. Whatsthescript
2. Goldikova
3. Justenuffhumor 

WHATSTHESCRIPT will never be confused with Lure, or Miesque, or even Goldikova, for that matter, but he just might be the right horse for this one day. He was very wide last time in the Oak Tree Mile, but what else is new? He has had bad luck with post positions dating back to last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile when he was third from post 11. This year, he gets post two, there is a lot more early speed in the field to flatter his late run, and the formidable GOLDIKOVA  receives post 11. Goldikova maybe the most likely winner, but I’m not sure she is a good gamble given that she might be pressing a breakneck pace set by Euro rabbit Gladiatorus and Cowboy Cal.   JUSTENUFFHUMOR has a world of talent, and his last race over soft turf can probably be ignored. But he will lose valuable ground from post 10. 

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

1. Midshipman
2. Mastercraftsman
3. Bullsbay

MIDSHIPMAN was involved in a scorching speed duel in his return against the very quick Just Ben. That duel caused them to come home slowly, which deflated the Beyer figure. Saturday, this Grade I, two-turn, Santa Anita winner should be on an uncontested lead. MASTERCRAFTSMAN is the 6-5 morning line favorite but the fact that Aidan O’Brien put him in this race rather than the Classic gives me pause. In his last three races -- all at 1 ¼ miles or longer -- he had two completely respectable losses to Sea the Stars followed by a 5-length win in Ireland over Polytrack. So why run here? When a trainer has options and chooses the clearly softer one, I take it as a bearish sign -- especially with a horse that will go off at a short price. BULLSBAY is a solid horse who will benefit greatly from the cutback in distance here. He often hangs at 1 1/8 miles, but powers home at a mile or 1 1/16 miles.   Excellent move by Graham Motion to forego the Classic with this horse.

Breeders’ Cup Turf

1. Conduit
2. Spanish Moon
3. Dar Re Mi
4. Telling

Under the best of circumstances, Europe eats our lunch in this race. So with our best turf horse, Gio Ponti, going in the Classic, I don’t hold out much hope for the home team. CONDUIT finished just a length ahead of a tiring Dar Re Mi in the Arc, but I am going to give him bonus points in this affair, because unlike his fellow Euros, he has already shown that he can ship to California and run big. SPANISH MOON twice finished ahead of Youmzain in his recent starts, and Youmazin finished ahead of both Conduit and Dar Re Mi (albeit narrowly) in the Arc. Given her tactical speed, DAR RE MI may well find the faster, tighter course at Santa Anita more to her liking than the grass courses in Europe. TELLING may be the best of the Americans. His last race is a throwout due to the conditions. His prior effort in the Sword Dancer was even better than it looked given his relative proximity to a ridiculous speed duel. 

Breeders’ Cup Classic

1. Richard’s Kid
2. Mine That Bird
3. Twice Over
4. Rip Van Winkle

There are about six horses in here whose connections would probably prefer it if this race were at 1 1/8 miles: Colonel John, Zenyatta, Girolamo, Rip Van Winkle, Regal Ransom and Quality Road. I think this doesn’t just downgrade the chances of those six, it improves the likelihood of there being a fast pace in the race. Meanwhile I think there are just three horses who really stand to gain by this being a 10-furlong race, and those are my top three picks. RICHARD’S KID, whose dam was a turf filly, is simply a better horse on synthetics than anything else. His run in the Goodwood, where he was hampered by a slow pace, proved that the Pacific Classic win was no fluke. MINE THAT BIRD will benefit from his last outing off the 10-week layoff, and he pretty much ran the same Goodwood as Richard’s Kid -- he just ran his race starting from four lengths farther back. If the pace is hot, he will be extremely dangerous, and he showed last year that synthetics were not an issue for him. TWICE OVER is on a roll, and given what happened in this race last year, this European must be granted serious respect. RIP VAN WINKLE figures tough, but I think he will be pressing a fast pace set by Regal Ransom and Girolamo, and I was not thrilled to read on Wednesday that he is battling a foot problem. SUMMER BIRD is a major question mark on this surface. He supposedly disliked it when John Sadler had him a year ago. ZENYATTA is a wonderful mare, but because she is a short-priced horse stepping up in company and stretching out in distance, I can root for her but I can’t bet on her.