Three for six on Friday, hitting Man of Iron ($14.80), Midday ($6.60) and Informed Decision ($8.80). Would have been a great ending if Mushka could’ve won rather than placed in the Ladies Classic, as I was live with a $668 pick three and her $14 win payout.
As I said earlier this week, with so much to study, it makes sense to draft a game plan, and have an idea about what to bet on each day. Trainer/Jockey analysis is also critical for the big events. A review of the Breeders’ Cup Stats site is crucial http://stats.breederscup.com.
My guiding principles for betting this year’s Breeders’ Cup are fairly simple: There is overwhelming evidence that conventional dirt runners fail to run their best on the Pro Ride surface. None of the dirt runners were much of a factor, with Ladies Classic favorite Careless Jewel leading by 8 lengths early and finishing last. This gives synthetic runners a distinct advantage, especially those that have already raced well over Santa Anita’s Pro Ride surface, which is a different synthetic track from all the others in North America. If a horse passes the surface reality check, next judge based on the class of race it has won in the past. Multiple Grade 1 winners are automatic contenders, followed by Grade 1 and Grade 2 winners, followed by other top stakes horses that have won at the Breeders’ Cup race distance or farther. This eliminates many an entrant that has been dominant at lower levels or shorter distances. The Breeders’ Cup is no time for a horse to face the longest distance against the highest class field it has ever faced, so proven commodities often prevail. Europeans that have beaten top company overseas prove equal to Americans on the Pro Ride surface, and generally dominant over the turf.
With that last bit of my advice, here are my selections for Day 2:
BC Juvenile Turf: My namesake Dean’s Kitten is the longshot pick here, a last-out stakes winner. Interactif is the likely favorite off his back to back romping stakes wins over east coast turf courses. Europeans Viscount Nelson and Pounced may prove better than the Americans, and are hard to leave out of any exotics.
BC Turf Sprint: I love playing “down the hill” turf sprints at Santa Anita. My rule has always been to favor horses that have had a trip down the hill. But that would eliminate 8 of the 14 runners in this field, and I happen to like 2 runners that haven’t run on the hill before. My top pick is Cannonball, who has no experience on the hillside course yet made a trip overseas to Ascot and was beaten just a neck in a Grade I sprint. I also like Diamondrella, a filly with unusual turn speed for a turf runner. These two top caliber runners stand out over a group of otherwise average turf stakes horses.
BC Sprint: I have been a follower of Capt Candyman Can for 2 years and cashed a lot of tickets on him. But he’s not a west coaster, which is almost a requirement to win the sprint at Santa Anita. He and closer Gayego will need to hope Fatal Bullet and Zensational cook each other winging on the front end. I’ll play the Captain to win, and over and under Gayego, Fatal Bullet and Zensational in exactas. This race may show that the Breeders’ Cup in California is all about the Californians. Guessing Californians will control this race, I will make this the smallest play of my weekend.
BC Juvenile: Californians were dominant in this race last year, and the favorite is likely to continue that trend, with Lookin At Lucky likely to control the race. It will be hard to play longshots like Aikenite and Beethoven beyond a token win bet, but both are classy young horses that may offer a value if the favorite has an off day.
BC Turf Mile: Goldikova is my play to beat the boys again. I don’t need to think twice about it. She was my top pick of the Breeders’ Cup last year and has a similar field to overpower this year.
BC Dirt Mile: This race will probably be 6/5 morning line Mastercraftsman’s to lose. I would like to think Mr. Sidney can upset, but he’s facing tough horses on a circuit he has never tried. Pyro, Bullsbay, and Midshipman are the 2nd, 3rd and 4th choices on the morning line, but are all dirt runners and I discount their chances.
BC Turf: This is Europe’s race, period. They’ll get the rock-hard, firmest course they’ve ever run on, but I doubt it will matter. If last year’s BC Turf winner Conduit hasn’t recovered from his recent big efforts overseas, then Dar Re Mi and Spanish Moon, the other two Euros, are still the best of the field. Rather than over-think this one I’ll take the two of them to win at 3-1 or better, and box the three Euros in exactas
BC Classic: My famous last words in 2008 were: “Given what happened to Curlin (namely being beaten by a air of turf milers from Europe) next year when the Breeders’ Cup is again at Santa Anita, the public will pay more attention to dirt versus synthetic when they make their selections.” Well, here we go. Rip Van Winkle, Einstein, Zenyatta or total upset? Zenyatta has yet to handle the distance, but she owns the surface, and most of the competition is not up to her level. At even money due to fan interest, I can’t back her. Rip Van Winkle is the newcomer from Europe, and if he happens to be a monster on synthetic surfaces, he’s going to crush this field. If Einstein runs like he did in the Santa Anita Handicap (winning on same surface and distance back in March), he is a bigger threat to Zenyatta than the rest of the field. Anyone else would surprise me. 3-1 or better on Rip Van Winkle would be an outstanding price, and 8-1 or better on Einstein make him an overlay worth using as well.